Research publications

On 15 August 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul largely unopposed, marking the end of a two-decade-long conflict and the internationally recognized government of Afghanistan. Concerns were immediately raised about how the Taliban would rule, throwing into doubt the continued flow of international assistance on which the country has depended. In the wake of the Taliban’s return to power, observers have warned that Afghanistan is facing a humanitarian crisis, alongside economic and financial instability. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimates that one possible future Afghanistan faces is “near universal poverty.” It is in this new, uncertain landscape that Canada and its allies must determine what their level of engagement will be with Afghanistan’s new rulers and how they can support Afghans in need.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) conflict over almost 20 years was unprecedented for the Alliance in terms of both its origin and its scope. Following the unexpectedly swift collapse of the Afghan government and military in August 2021, NATO foreign ministers pledged to “fully reflect on our engagement in Afghanistan and draw the necessary lessons.” These lessons are relevant to Canada, not least because Canada’s military mission in Afghanistan was its largest military deployment since the Second World War and saw its highest fatalities since the Korean War. It also involved significant integration with the other aspects of Canada’s international policy, including diplomacy and development. Moreover, the Alliance’s reflection on how it will consider and implement future activities beyond its immediate area of responsibility will be important given the priority Canada places on an effective and credible NATO.